The evidence behind why we need a more modern, high-quality and responsive long-term care system.
The evidence behind why we need a more modern, high-quality and responsive long-term care system.
One in 5 seniors over the age of 80+ have complex care needs that require long-term care, but our system was not built for current or future care needs.
Today, more than 45,000 people are waiting for long-term care. This waitlist has doubled over the past 10 years and it is expected to grow, adding 1,000 people per year and reaching 48,000 by 2029.
Plus, long-term homes do not have enough staff because of the health human resources crisis happening across the broader health system and around the world.
We need to revitalize long-term care to meet the complex care needs of our growing seniors’ population. Below is the data proving why.
1 in 13 Ontarians will be over the age of 80 by 2040.1
Ontario’s 80+ population is projected to more than double by 2040.1
Nearly 3 in 4 caregivers worry they cannot handle all of their caregiving duties.3
In 2022-2023, 42.1% of caregivers in Ontario reported having distress.3
Distressed caregivers report 39 hours per week on care, more than double those who are not distressed.4
Yet 1 in 5 seniors over the age of 80 has complex care needs that can only be safely met in long-term care.2
This is the lowest in Canada and well below the national average of nearly 10%.5
These residents often are in rural communities without access to extensive home care or live alone without informal caregiver support.5
Of those moving into long-term care homes in 2022-2023:
Complex medical needs
3 out of every 4 people entering long-term care have 3 or more different medical conditions.6
Daily living support
88% of people entering long-term care need support with activities of daily living, compared to 67% in 2011.6
Medications
Nearly 75% of people entering long-term care require eight different medications, with 30% requiring 13 or more.6
Cognitive impairment
76% of people entering long-term care have mild to severe cognitive issues, an increase of 25% since 2011.6
Patients often have multiple conditions.
Licensed long-term care homes
There are 620 licensed homes operating across Ontario providing care to residents.7
Spaces for residents
There are just over 76,000 available long-term care spaces for residents. These spaces are at full capacity.7
Across Canada, job vacancy rates have increased by nearly 70% in the health care and social assistance sector in four years, from 3.1% in November 2019 to 5.2% in November 2023.11
Over 100,000 people work in long-term care in Ontario.9 They include registered nurses; registered practical nurses; personal support workers; social workers; social activity staff; nutritional managers; chefs and food services workers; housekeeping, laundry and maintenance staff; and administrators.9
By 2029, Ontario long-term care homes will require at least 58,600 more nurses and personal support workers alone to meet increased hours of care and support residents in new long-term care spaces. 12
That is more than double the current nursing and personal support worker workforce.
The health human resources crisis is happening in Ontario, across Canada and around the world and affects all health sectors, including long-term care.
In 2022, nearly all Ontario homes report having difficulty filling shifts for registered nurses and registered practical nurses.
And, more than 60% report having difficulty filling shifts for personal support workers and their dietary teams.12
Ontario homes reported a significant turnover in leadership from 2020 to 2022.
50% of homes saw a change in their director of care, and over 40% lost their administrator.12
In the next 10 years, based on seniors’ population growth, the demand for long-term care is projected to increase by an average of 38%.13
By 2029, Ontario would require over 30,000 new long-term care spaces in order to serve our growing aging population.13
To learn about the challenges to redevelop and build new spaces in long-term care, visit our section on building and redevelopment.
The demand for long-term care will vary by region in Ontario.
Some regions in Ontario will have a higher demand for long-term care spaces in 10 years.13
Until recently, one of the missing pieces of information in our conversations about future seniors’ care planning was how well the Baby Boom generation is preparing for potential challenges as they age. As the oldest of the Boomers approaches 80, we wanted to know how they are preparing for the next stage of their life; what they think about their future care needs; and what plans they are putting in place.
In May of 2023, the Ontario Long Term Care Association commissioned Abacus Data to survey 1,000 Ontario residents aged 68 to 76 to help with our planning for the future.14
1 Statistics Canada for 1971-2021, and Ontario Ministry of Finance Projections
2 Preyra Solutions Group (PSG), Ontario Long Term Care Association (OLTCA) and Ontario Ministry of Finance Projections
3 Ontario Caregiver Organization, Spotlight Report 2023 and Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), Your Health System, Caregiver Distress, 2023
4 Ontario Caregiver Organization, Spotlight Report 2023
5 Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), Your Health System, New Long-Term Care Residents Who Potentially Could Have Been Cared for at Home
6 Intellihealth, CCRS main and assessment package 2022/23 data. Data retrieved December 2023
7 Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care Inspector’s Quality Solution (IQS) Database, January 2024
8 Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care Client Profile Database (CPRO), July 2024
9 Ontario Long-Term Care Staffing Study, July 30, 2020
10 Ontario Health, Wait Times for Long-Term Care
11 Statistics Canada, Job vacancies, payroll employees, and job vacancy rate by industry sector, monthly, adjusted for seasonality, Table 14-10-0406-01, Release Date 2024-01-25
12 Ontario Long Term Care Association (OLTCA), internal analysis, Fall 2022
13 Preyra Solutions Group (PSG)
14 Abacus Data survey of 1,000 Ontarians aged 68-76, May 2023